The honest answer is a count, not an opinion: 97 of 172 tracked Minnesota ZIP codes, 56 percent, where the published fair market rent meets or beats what landlords are asking.
Yes, more often than not. In 97 of the 172 Minnesota ZIP codes carrying both a HUD fair market rent and a Zillow market rent, 56 percent of them, the 2 bedroom fair market rent meets or beats typical asking rent. The median spread across all 172 of them is -$44, or -2.6 percent of the fair market rent, against a median market asking rent of $1,668 as of 2026-07.
That is a real finding and it is also a narrow one. It compares a HUD 2 bedroom 40th percentile estimate to a Zillow index that blends every unit size in the ZIP code, so in a ZIP code full of studios the market number reads low and the comparison flatters the voucher. Read it as a map of where to look, not as a promise about any one unit.
| ZIP | City | County | 2BR FMR, FY2026 | Market rent | Spread % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55069 | Rush City | Chisago | $1,520 | $980 | -35.5% |
| 55320 | Clearwater | Wright | $1,520 | $1,100 | -27.6% |
| 55306 | Burnsville | Dakota | $1,920 | $1,409 | -26.6% |
| 55130 | Saint Paul | Ramsey | $1,520 | $1,126 | -25.9% |
| 56379 | Sauk Rapids | Benton | $1,520 | $1,133 | -25.5% |
| 55445 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $2,560 | $1,915 | -25.2% |
| 55402 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $2,150 | $1,653 | -23.1% |
| 55101 | Saint Paul | Ramsey | $2,040 | $1,576 | -22.7% |
The eight Minnesota ZIP codes where the published fair market rent exceeds typical asking rent by the widest percentage. The full ranked list of all 172 is on the Section 8 spread table.
It looks backwards until you remember what each number is. Fair market rent is set once a year from HUD's own rent survey and is meant to reach the more affordable part of the standard quality stock across a whole ZIP code, including older buildings and units off the listing sites. The Zillow index measures asking rents on units actually coming to market, which in a soft or slow moving ZIP code can sit below the published standard for a year at a time.
The practical effect for a landlord is that in 97 Minnesota ZIP codes, a voucher tenant at the payment standard is the higher offer before you count anything else. Add the part of the rent that arrives from the authority every month and the vacancy you avoid, and the case gets stronger. The counter is inspection: a unit has to pass, and that takes time you should price in.
Payment standards are not in this data. Vouchers in Minnesota run through dozens of separate housing authorities. Each authority sets its own payment standard, normally between 90 and 110 percent of the published fair market rent, and can ask HUD to approve more. Nothing on this page adjusts for that. Check the payment standard with the housing authority: Metro HRA, Minneapolis Public Housing Authority, and Saint Paul Public Housing Agency.
A statewide answer is not your answer. Put your ZIP code and your asking rent into the landlord voucher check and you will get the fair market rent for that ZIP code, the gap in dollars, and the voucher competitive ZIP codes nearby. Then confirm the payment standard with the authority, because that is the number that pays. Data last updated 2026-09-05.
In 97 of the 172 Minnesota ZIP codes carrying both a HUD fair market rent and a Zillow market rent, the 2 bedroom fair market rent meets or beats typical asking rent. That is 56 percent of tracked ZIP codes. The median spread statewide is -$44, or -2.6 percent of FMR.
The authority's share is paid directly to the landlord every month under a housing assistance payments contract, which is why voucher income is often steadier than market income. The tenant share is still the tenant's to pay, and the unit has to pass inspection before payments start.
Do not rule it out on the published FMR alone. The payment standard runs between 90 and 110 percent of FMR, so a gap of a few percent often closes. A gap of several hundred dollars usually does not. Run the number, then call the authority.
Pencilwrite turns an address, a price, and these rents into a full underwrite, cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, true ROE, taxes, and an offer you can send. Limited beta access spots open. Sign up for the beta, opening in the next two months. Free.
