Where a Housing Choice Voucher pays more than the open market in Minnesota this month, where it falls short, and what moved since the last Zillow release. Rebuilt from the source data every month, no editorial guesswork.
Across the 155 Minnesota ZIP codes carrying both a HUD fair market rent and a Zillow market rent this month, the median 2 bedroom FMR sits $65 above typical asking rent, a median spread of -3.4 percent. 91 of those ZIP codes, 59 percent, are voucher competitive, meaning the fair market rent meets or beats what landlords are asking there. Market rent kept moving up: on the 140 ZIP codes with both 2026-06 and 2026-07 readings the median gained +0.40 percent, and 90 of them rose. Those two facts point in opposite directions for a landlord. A rising market rent widens the gap the voucher has to cover, while a fair market rent that already sits above the ask is a signal to take the voucher tenant seriously. Geography still decides most of it: Ramsey County runs a median spread of -10.5 percent across 19 ZIP codes while Olmsted County runs +15.5 percent, so the same voucher behaves like a different program depending on the address. None of this is a payment standard. FMR is a 40th percentile estimate on the federal fiscal year, currently FY2026, and the authority that issued the voucher sets the standard from it.
| ZIP | City | County | 2BR FMR | Market rent | Spread | Spread % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55069 | Rush City | Chisago | $1,520 | $980 | -$540 | -35.5% |
| 55306 | Burnsville | Dakota | $1,920 | $1,409 | -$511 | -26.6% |
| 55130 | Saint Paul | Ramsey | $1,520 | $1,126 | -$394 | -25.9% |
| 56379 | Sauk Rapids | Benton | $1,520 | $1,133 | -$387 | -25.5% |
| 55402 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $2,150 | $1,653 | -$497 | -23.1% |
| 55101 | Saint Paul | Ramsey | $2,040 | $1,576 | -$464 | -22.7% |
| 55401 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $2,560 | $2,002 | -$558 | -21.8% |
| 56304 | Saint Cloud | Stearns | $1,520 | $1,204 | -$316 | -20.8% |
| 55408 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $1,910 | $1,513 | -$397 | -20.8% |
| 55431 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $2,100 | $1,713 | -$387 | -18.4% |
Sorted by the most negative spread, that is, where the 2 bedroom fair market rent exceeds typical asking rent by the widest percentage. These are the ZIP codes where accepting a voucher at the payment standard is most likely to beat chasing a market tenant.
| ZIP | City | County | 2BR FMR | Market rent | Spread | Spread % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55331 | Excelsior | Hennepin | $1,520 | $2,640 | +$1,120 | +73.7% |
| 55301 | Albertville | Wright | $1,870 | $2,947 | +$1,077 | +57.6% |
| 55120 | Saint Paul | Dakota | $1,520 | $2,218 | +$698 | +45.9% |
| 56308 | Alexandria | Douglas | $1,000 | $1,378 | +$378 | +37.8% |
| 55082 | Stillwater | Washington | $1,660 | $2,282 | +$622 | +37.5% |
| 55340 | Hamel | Hennepin | $2,040 | $2,800 | +$760 | +37.3% |
| 55330 | Elk River | Sherburne | $1,600 | $2,139 | +$539 | +33.7% |
| 55804 | Duluth | St. Louis | $1,650 | $2,204 | +$554 | +33.6% |
| 55042 | Lake Elmo | Washington | $1,770 | $2,364 | +$594 | +33.6% |
| 55811 | Duluth | St. Louis | $1,570 | $2,002 | +$432 | +27.5% |
Sorted by the largest positive spread. Here the published FMR sits well under what landlords are asking, so a voucher tenant needs a payment standard near the top of the 90 to 110 percent band, an exception, or a smaller unit than the 2 bedroom benchmark.
| ZIP | City | County | 2026-06 | 2026-07 | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55391 | Wayzata | Hennepin | $2,001 | $2,095 | +$94 | +4.7% |
| 55454 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $1,761 | $1,841 | +$80 | +4.6% |
| 55906 | Rochester | Olmsted | $1,506 | $1,566 | +$60 | +4.0% |
| 55419 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $1,719 | $1,774 | +$56 | +3.2% |
| 55387 | Waconia | Carver | $1,838 | $1,895 | +$57 | +3.1% |
| 55042 | Lake Elmo | Washington | $2,298 | $2,364 | +$66 | +2.9% |
| 55055 | Newport | Washington | $1,284 | $1,320 | +$36 | +2.8% |
| 55024 | Farmington | Dakota | $1,939 | $1,986 | +$46 | +2.4% |
| 55309 | Big Lake | Sherburne | $1,557 | $1,522 | -$34 | -2.2% |
| 55409 | Minneapolis | Hennepin | $1,585 | $1,536 | -$49 | -3.1% |
Only ZIP codes with a Zillow reading in both 2026-06 and 2026-07 appear, so nothing here is an artifact of a ZIP code entering or leaving coverage. ZORI is a smoothed index across all unit sizes, so single month moves of under one percent are usually noise.
| County | ZIPs with both signals | Voucher competitive | Median spread | Median spread % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramsey | 19 | 17 | -$168 | -10.5% |
| Hennepin | 54 | 37 | -$108 | -6.3% |
| Scott | 3 | 2 | -$56 | -2.7% |
| Dakota | 15 | 9 | -$44 | -2.2% |
| Anoka | 8 | 5 | -$34 | -2.0% |
| Stearns | 5 | 4 | -$22 | -1.8% |
| Washington | 10 | 5 | +$23 | +0.2% |
| Carver | 4 | 1 | +$160 | +8.9% |
| Wright | 5 | 1 | +$200 | +13.2% |
| St. Louis | 6 | 1 | +$178 | +13.8% |
| Sherburne | 3 | 1 | +$230 | +15.1% |
| Olmsted | 4 | 0 | +$221 | +15.5% |
Counties with at least three ZIP codes carrying both signals, sorted from the most voucher friendly median spread to the least. Each county name links to its Section 8 page with the full ZIP table.
If you are a landlord. Look up your own ZIP code in the tables above before you turn down a voucher application. In the 91 voucher competitive ZIP codes the fair market rent already meets or beats your likely ask, so the voucher is the higher offer once you price in vacancy and turnover. Outside those, run the number rather than assuming: the payment standard can reach 110 percent of FMR, which closes a gap of a few dollars but not a gap of a few hundred. The landlord voucher check does that comparison for one ZIP code and one asking rent in a few seconds.
If you are an investor. Use the spread as a screen, not a valuation. A ZIP code where FMR runs above market is a place where a voucher heavy rent roll underwrites at a higher, more stable rent than the comps suggest, which changes what you can pay. A ZIP code where market rent runs far above FMR is the opposite: voucher income will not carry the pro forma, so underwrite it as a market rate deal and treat any voucher tenancy as upside. Either way pull real comps for the actual unit before you sign, because neither number knows the condition of the building.
Payment standards are not in this data. Vouchers in Minnesota run through dozens of separate housing authorities. Each authority sets its own payment standard, normally between 90 and 110 percent of the published fair market rent, and can ask HUD to approve more. Nothing on this page adjusts for that. Check the payment standard with the housing authority: Metro HRA, Minneapolis Public Housing Authority, and Saint Paul Public Housing Agency.
Fair market rent is HUD's 40th percentile estimate of gross rent for a 2 bedroom unit in each ZIP code, published on the federal fiscal year, currently FY2026. It is not a quote, not a ceiling, and not a payment standard. Zillow's Observed Rent Index is a smoothed index of asking rents across all unit sizes, currently through 2026-07, so a ZIP code heavy in studios reads lower than its 2 bedroom reality. Every figure on this page is built on one Zillow vintage: ZIP codes whose latest Zillow reading is older than 2026-07 are excluded from this report, 17 of them this month, and they stay in the {s8lnk} and the JSON API where each row carries its own reading month. The two measure different things, which is why the spread is a screening signal and not a price. Full definitions are in the methodology, and every row here is available as JSON from the data API. Data last updated 2026-09-05.
Get an email when rents change in the monthly report. We will send a short note, not a newsletter.
Pencilwrite turns an address, a price, and these rents into a full underwrite, cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, true ROE, taxes, and an offer you can send. Limited beta access spots open. Sign up for the beta, opening in the next two months. Free.
